India vs Australia 1st Test Tips - Hosts likely to edge a tight match

India is one of the toughest places to tour and most of the Australian players have acknowledged the same. Despite missing key players like Rishabh Pant, Jasprit Bumrah and Shreyas Iyer, India remain the favourites on paper because of the conditions. I am putting my money on an Indian win, while Cheteshwar Pujara may fancy his chances of ending as the top match batter.

India vs Australia is one of the iconic series in the recent years. Overall, these sides have played out 102 Tests with India winning 30, Australia winning 43, one match ending in a tie and the remaining 28 ending in draws.

When playing in India, the record is more favourable to the hosts. They have played 50 home Tests so far with India winning 21, losing 13 and drawing 15. It gets even more dominant in the recent years with nine wins out of the last 11 with only one loss.

Ahead of this series, India are 2nd in the ICC World Test Championship with 58.93 percentage points. Rohit Sharma’s men need a series win by 3-1 margin or better to reach the final regardless of other results.

India were last seen in a Test series in December when they whitewashed Bangladesh 2-0. Despite the final result, that series was a close affair with India stretched at times. India’s struggles against spin and most notably against off-spinners was quite evident.

Playing Australia seems to bring the best out of the hosts though, who have won 2-1 down under in 2021. Even at home, they won the four-Test series 2-1 in 2017.

With Rishabh Pant out of the series with an injury, India are likely to hand over a debut to Srikar Bharat, although Ishan Kishan also remains in the fray. All eyes will be on the three-spin attack with Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja likely to be partnered by Axar Patel or Kuldeep Yadav.

Australia are top of the ICC World Test Championship table with 75.56 percentage points. They have all but secured a place in the final with the only scenario in which they will miss out is if they lose 4-0 here and Sri Lanka win both their matches in New Zealand.

The Aussies were last seen in this format when they defeated South Africa 2-0 in the three-match series at home in December – January. It was a series that saw most of Australian batters get into rich scoring form, which augurs well for their chances.

That said, the visitors have struggled in India over the years with no series win since 2004. They have lost four series in a row from then, winning just one of the 14 Tests played in that period, while losing ten.

All-rounder Cameron Green is unlikely to play as he is yet to recover from the fractured finger he suffered during the Boxing Day Test against South Africa. That could see Australia field Peter Handscomb or Matt Renshaw as his replacement. Rookie off-break bowler Todd Murphy could be a surprise pick although Ashton Agar looks more likely to play.